Bottom line: We have been writing down prices on the same products since early September. Nine days after Prime Big Deal Days, the big-ticket items are all more expensive than they were six weeks ago. The Theragun Sense went from $199.99 to $299.99. The Normatec 3 went from $799 to $899. That matters because the Black Friday percentage you see in November gets calculated against today’s number, not September’s. Prices checked 16 October 2026.
What We Actually Recorded
| Product | Early Sept | 16 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theragun Sense | $199.99 | $299.99 | +$100 |
| Hyperice Normatec 3 | $799.00 | $899.00 | +$100 |
| Garmin Forerunner 265 | $349.99 | $430.89 | +$81 |
| Garmin Forerunner 165 | $199.00 | $198.95 | flat |
| MZOO sleep mask | $16.99 | $13.99 | −$3.00 |
These are dated spot checks on specific listings, not continuous tracking. We recorded each one on the day we published an article referencing it, which is why the September dates vary between the 8th and the 16th. Every figure is a price we read on the product page, and anyone can verify today’s column right now.
The pattern is the thing. Three of the five went up, the two that did not are the cheapest items on the list, and the largest increases landed on the most expensive products.
Why a Rising Price Before a Sale Is the Whole Problem
A discount is a percentage of something. The something is what nobody checks.
Work through the Theragun Sense. In September it sold for $199.99. Today it is $299.99. If Therabody runs its usual Black Friday discount of around 35 percent off, that lands near $195. The banner will say 35 percent off, which will be true against the November price, and you will pay roughly what the thing cost in early September with no sale at all.
Same arithmetic on the Normatec 3. At $899 today, a 20 percent Black Friday cut gives $719. We recorded it at $799 in September, so that is a genuine saving of $80, not the $180 the percentage implies against its higher list price.
This is not an accusation of deliberate manipulation, and we cannot see inside anyone’s pricing system. Prices move for ordinary reasons: inventory, demand, third-party sellers rotating in and out of the buy box. But the effect on a shopper is identical whatever the cause. The reference point you are being shown in November is not the price the product has been selling at.
Our Black Friday guide makes the general version of this argument. This is the version with dates attached.
What Prime Big Deal Days Told Us
Amazon ran Prime Big Deal Days on 6 and 7 October, nine days before we took the October readings above.
Which means these are post-event prices, after whatever promotional pricing ran during the sale had ended. Our readings do not capture what these products cost during those two days, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. What they do capture is where prices settled afterwards, which is the number Black Friday discounts will be measured against.
That matters for a claim we have made repeatedly on this site: for several categories, the October or July Prime events produce the real annual low rather than Black Friday. The Garmin pattern in particular supports it, since the Forerunner 265 was over $80 cheaper in early September, well before any event, than it is heading into the November sale season. Our Prime Day versus Black Friday breakdown and Garmin timing guide go category by category.
How to Check This Yourself in Thirty Seconds
You do not need to trust our table. The point of this article is that the method is available to anyone.
Use Amazon’s own price history. Amazon shows up to 365 days of pricing on a product page, which is enough to see whether November’s number is genuinely low or merely lower than last week. If the page shows the product sitting below the sale price earlier in the year, the discount is cosmetic.
Write down today’s price before the sale starts. This is the entire trick and it costs nothing. A number you recorded in October cannot be revised. Screenshot it if you like. When the banner appears in November, compare against your note rather than against the struck-through figure beside it.
Treat the struck-through number as marketing. It is a list price, not necessarily a price anyone recently paid. The gap between list and street price is where most of the apparent discount in this category lives.
Check whether it is the same seller. On Amazon the buy box rotates between sellers, and a price change sometimes reflects a different merchant rather than a real move by the brand.
So Should You Buy Now or Wait?
Depends on the category, and the honest answer is not the same for everything.
Wait, for Theragun and Therabody. These discount reliably and deeply at Black Friday, commonly in the 35 to 50 percent range. Even measured against today’s inflated $299.99, a real Theragun sale should beat September’s price. Our Theragun discount history covers the pattern.
Wait, for compression boots and walking pads. Both are reliable Black Friday categories with genuine depth. Our compression boots analysis and WalkingPad discount history set the expectations, including that WalkingPad beat its own Black Friday price in February one year.
Buy now, if you find a Garmin at a September-level price. Garmin discounts are real but frequently matched or beaten at Prime events and in post-launch clearance rather than at Black Friday. The Forerunner 165 at $198.95 has barely moved in six weeks, which is what a stable street price looks like.
Stop waiting, for Oura and Strava. Oura rarely discounts outside Black Friday and then only modestly, and Strava essentially never runs one. Our Oura discount history covers it.
Ignore all of this for anything under $50. A 30 percent saving on a $15 item is $4.50. Waiting six weeks to save four dollars is not a strategy, and our under-$50 guide covers that end of the range.
What We Will Do Next
We are going to keep taking these readings through November and publish what actually happened, including the cases where our expectations were wrong.
That is a slightly uncomfortable commitment for an affiliate site, because the honest outcome may well be that several products are not worth buying on Black Friday at all. We would rather publish that than a deals list. The useful version of this page in December is a record of which brands discounted genuinely and which ones raised a price in October and called the reversal a sale.
If you want the short version in the meantime: note today’s price on whatever you are considering, and compare against your own note rather than the banner.
How We Evaluate
We do not test products hands-on and we will not imply we do. Every figure in this article is a price we read directly on the seller’s own Amazon product page on the date stated. The September readings were taken between 8 and 16 September 2026 while writing other articles on this site, which is why those dates vary; the October readings were all taken on 16 October 2026. These are dated spot checks rather than continuous tracking, and we have not attempted to reconstruct what any product cost on days we did not check, including during Prime Big Deal Days on 6 and 7 October. Projected Black Friday prices in this article are arithmetic applied to published historical discount ranges, clearly labelled as estimates rather than forecasts. Prices change constantly and every figure here will drift.
FAQ
Do prices go up before Black Friday?
In the five products we tracked, three rose between early September and mid-October, and the largest increases were on the most expensive items. We cannot say why, and ordinary causes like inventory and seller rotation explain price movement too. The practical effect is the same: November’s discount percentage is calculated against the higher number.
Is Black Friday actually the cheapest time to buy fitness gear?
It depends heavily on the brand. Therabody, compression boots and walking pads discount reliably and deeply. Garmin is frequently matched or beaten at Prime events and in post-launch clearance, and Oura discounts only modestly.
How do I tell if a Black Friday discount is real?
Write down today’s price and compare against your own note in November, rather than against the struck-through figure beside the sale price. Amazon also shows up to 365 days of price history on product pages.
Should I wait for Black Friday to buy a Theragun?
Probably yes. Therabody discounts reliably at 35 to 50 percent, which should beat the $199.99 we recorded in September even measured against the current $299.99. Check the final number rather than the percentage.
Is it worth waiting on cheap items?
No. A 30 percent discount on a $15 product saves $4.50. The waiting strategy only makes sense above roughly $100, where the percentages translate into real money.